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Gimcheon Sangmu vs Jeju Utd Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 10:30

Gimcheon Sangmu

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jeju Utd

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-115.9%0-28.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.3%1-113.3%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.1%2-15.5%2-23.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.4%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 40.0% 2.50 -22.5%

Draw 29.3% 30.3% 3.30 -2.0%

Away win 39.6% 36.4% 2.75 +8.9%

Over 2.5 44.3% 50.0% 2.00 -11.4%

Over 3.5 23.4% 28.2% 3.55 -10.2%

BTTS 48.5% 57.8% 1.73 -16.1%

Home O1.5 33.7% 41.7% 2.40 -19.1%

Away O1.5 35.9% 39.2% 2.55 -8.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

D 29% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 15.9%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimcheon Sangmu0.8

Jeju Utd1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMCHEON SANGMU · PPG 0.57

JEJU UTD · PPG 1.43

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Gimcheon Sangmu (H) 31.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -22.5%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.0%

Jeju Utd (A) 39.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimcheon Sangmu face Jeju Utd in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu a 31% chance, the draw 29% and Jeju Utd 40%, so Jeju Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Gimcheon Sangmu and 1.1 for Jeju Utd (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimcheon Sangmu are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.43 for Jeju Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.9%.

Gimcheon Sangmu vs Jeju Utd Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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