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Puchov vs P. Bystrica Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 15:00

Puchov

PPG 1.36 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

P. Bystrica

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.9%0-24.8%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.9%1-111.1%1-27.7%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.0%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.5%3-14.8%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 51.3% 1.95 -16.9%

Draw 25.4% 28.2% 3.55 -5.9%

Away win 32.0% 31.3% 3.20 +2.4%

Over 2.5 59.4% 61.7% 1.62 -3.8%

Over 3.5 35.6% 40.0% 2.50 -11.0%

BTTS 58.6% 66.7% 1.50 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.6%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puchov1.6

P. Bystrica1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PUCHOV · PPG 1.36

P. BYSTRICA · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Puchov (H) 42.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -16.9%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.9%

P. Bystrica (A) 32.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puchov face P. Bystrica in Slovakia - 2. liga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puchov a 43% chance, the draw 25% and P. Bystrica 32%, so Puchov are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Puchov and 1.4 for P. Bystrica (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puchov are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.93 for P. Bystrica. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Puchov vs P. Bystrica Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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