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Liberec W vs Sparta Prague W Prediction— Czech-Republic - 1. Liga Women

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Liberec W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sparta Prague W

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-12.1%0-24.4%0-36.1%0-4+19.2%1 1-00.6%1-12.4%1-25.0%1-36.9%1-4+21.6%2 2-00.3%2-11.4%2-22.8%2-33.9%2-4+12.2%3 3-00.1%3-10.5%3-21.1%3-31.5%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.5% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 67.9% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 76.9% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 88%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)4.1 BTTS prob58.8%

A 68% / xG 1.1-4.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–4 7.1%

#2 1–3 6.9%

#3 0–4 6.3%

#4 0–3 6.1%

#5 1–5 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liberec W1.1

Sparta Prague W4.1

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 76.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBEREC W · PPG 2.00

SPARTA PRAGUE W · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Liberec W (H) 10.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sparta Prague W (A) 67.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Liberec W face Sparta Prague W in Czech-Republic - 1. Liga Women on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liberec W a 11% chance, the draw 22% and Sparta Prague W 68%, so Sparta Prague W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Liberec W and 4.1 for Sparta Prague W (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-4. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liberec W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Sparta Prague W. This match finished 0-1.

Liberec W vs Sparta Prague W Prediction— Czech-Republic - 1. Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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