Today / Slovakia - 2. liga / Puchov vs Zlate Moravce

Puchov vs Zlate Moravce Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:30

Puchov

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zlate Moravce

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.0%0-25.5%0-33.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.3%1-19.6%1-28.7%1-35.2%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.6%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.2%3-14.1%3-23.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.3%4+-22.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 44.4% 2.25 -26.2%

Draw 25.4% 28.2% 3.55 -9.8%

Away win 41.8% 37.0% 2.70 +12.9%

Over 2.5 66.0% 60.6% 1.65 +8.9%

Over 3.5 44.1% 38.5% 2.60 +14.7%

BTTS 68.0% 65.4% 1.53 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob68.0%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puchov1.6

Zlate Moravce1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PUCHOV · PPG 1.23

ZLATE MORAVCE · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.23), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Puchov (H) 32.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -26.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.8%

Zlate Moravce (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puchov face Zlate Moravce in Slovakia - 2. liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puchov a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Zlate Moravce 42%, so Zlate Moravce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Puchov and 1.8 for Zlate Moravce (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puchov are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.31 for Zlate Moravce. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Puchov vs Zlate Moravce Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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