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Puchov vs Zlate Moravce Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:30

Puchov

PPG 1.23 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zlate Moravce

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.0%0-25.5%0-33.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.3%1-19.6%1-28.7%1-35.2%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.6%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.2%3-14.1%3-23.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.3%4+-22.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 44.4% 2.25 -26.2%

Draw 25.4% 28.2% 3.55 -9.8%

Away win 41.8% 37.0% 2.70 +12.9%

Over 2.5 66.0% 60.6% 1.65 +8.9%

Over 3.5 44.1% 38.5% 2.60 +14.7%

BTTS 68.0% 65.4% 1.53 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob68.0%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puchov1.6

Zlate Moravce1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PUCHOV · PPG 1.23

ZLATE MORAVCE · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.23), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Puchov (H) 32.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -26.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.8%

Zlate Moravce (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puchov face Zlate Moravce in Slovakia - 2. liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puchov a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Zlate Moravce 42%, so Zlate Moravce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Puchov and 1.8 for Zlate Moravce (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puchov are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.31 for Zlate Moravce. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Puchov vs Zlate Moravce Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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