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Rizespor vs Konyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 32 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 14:00

Rizespor

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Konyaspor

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.3%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.1%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 47.2% 2.12 -14.3%

Draw 29.2% 28.6% 3.50 +2.2%

Away win 30.4% 31.3% 3.20 -2.7%

Over 2.5 50.9% 58.8% 1.70 -13.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 35.7% 2.80 -19.4%

BTTS 56.6% 63.7% 1.57 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.6%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rizespor1.5

Konyaspor1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RIZESPOR · PPG 1.53

KONYASPOR · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Rizespor (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -14.3%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +2.2%

Konyaspor (A) 30.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rizespor face Konyaspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rizespor a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Konyaspor 30%, so Rizespor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rizespor and 1.2 for Konyaspor (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rizespor are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.07 for Konyaspor. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Rizespor vs Konyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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