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Zlate Moravce vs Pohronie Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Zlate Moravce

PPG 1.77 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Pohronie

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.4%0-22.9%0-31.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.5%1-17.5%1-26.4%1-33.6%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.6%3-16.2%3-25.2%3-32.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-15.7%4+-24.8%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 62.5% 1.60 -26.6%

Draw 26.3% 27.8% 3.60 -5.3%

Away win 27.8% 22.2% 4.50 +25.1%

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.8% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 61.7% 1.62 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zlate Moravce2.2

Pohronie1.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ZLATE MORAVCE · PPG 1.77

POHRONIE · PPG 0.69

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.77) vs P(Home)=45.9%

Win probability 1X2

Zlate Moravce (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -26.6%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.3%

Pohronie (A) 27.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zlate Moravce face Pohronie in Slovakia - 2. liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zlate Moravce a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Pohronie 28%, so Zlate Moravce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Zlate Moravce and 1.7 for Pohronie (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zlate Moravce are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.69 for Pohronie. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Zlate Moravce vs Pohronie Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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