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P. Bystrica vs Samorin Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:30

P. Bystrica

PPG 1.15 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Samorin

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.4%0-24.1%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.4%1-19.8%1-27.5%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.5%3-15.4%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.7%4+-22.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 50.0% 2.00 -10.2%

Draw 22.6% 32.3% 3.10 -29.9%

Away win 32.5% 31.3% 3.20 +4.0%

Over 2.5 65.0% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 65.6% 60.6% 1.65 +8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob65.6%

H 45% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

P. Bystrica1.8

Samorin1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

P. BYSTRICA · PPG 1.15

SAMORIN · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.15), Away AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

P. Bystrica (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -10.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -29.9%

Samorin (A) 32.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

P. Bystrica face Samorin in Slovakia - 2. liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives P. Bystrica a 45% chance, the draw 23% and Samorin 33%, so P. Bystrica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for P. Bystrica and 1.5 for Samorin (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, P. Bystrica are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.15 for Samorin. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 1-1.

P. Bystrica vs Samorin Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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