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Alianza Lima W vs Atl. Andahuaylas W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:15

Alianza Lima W

PPG 2.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atl. Andahuaylas W

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home 72% chance

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-14.8%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.4%1-19.3%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.9%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-15.7%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-14.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 78.1% 1.28 -26.7%

Draw 21.3% 19.0% 5.25 +7.1%

Away win 21.4% 13.3% 7.50 +36.3%

Over 2.5 51.7% 69.4% 1.44 -25.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 44.4% 2.25 -28.9%

BTTS 48.0% 56.8% 1.76 -15.5%

Home O1.5 55.8% 73.5% 1.36 -24.1%

Away O1.5 15.4% 23.8% 4.20 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.8%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 3–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Lima W1.9

Atl. Andahuaylas W0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA LIMA W · PPG 2.62

ATL. ANDAHUAYLAS W · PPG 2.11

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

72%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Lima W (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -26.7%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +7.1%

Atl. Andahuaylas W (A) 21.4%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Lima W face Atl. Andahuaylas W in Peru - Liga Women on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Lima W a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Atl. Andahuaylas W 21%, so Alianza Lima W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Alianza Lima W and 0.6 for Atl. Andahuaylas W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Lima W are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 2.11 for Atl. Andahuaylas W.

Alianza Lima W vs Atl. Andahuaylas W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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