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Killas W vs Sporting Cristal W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Killas W

PPG 0.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sporting Cristal W

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.9%0-29.1%0-37.0%0-4+6.9%1 1-03.7%1-18.5%1-29.7%1-37.5%1-4+7.3%2 2-02.0%2-14.5%2-25.2%2-34.0%2-4+3.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.6%3-21.9%3-31.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 4.8% 21.00 +228.5%

Draw 21.1% 11.8% 8.50 +47.6%

Away win 55.9% 91.7% 1.09 -39.1%

Over 2.5 62.1% 75.2% 1.33 -17.4%

Over 3.5 39.3% 56.8% 1.76 -30.8%

BTTS 59.9% 41.8% 2.39 +43.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 11.5% 8.70 +168.8%

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob59.9%

A 56% / xG 1.1-2.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 9.1%

#4 2–1 4.5%

#5 1–3 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Killas W1.1

Sporting Cristal W2.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KILLAS W · PPG 0.29

SPORTING CRISTAL W · PPG 1.60

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.23 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Killas W (H) 22.9%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV +228.5%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +47.6%

Sporting Cristal W (A) 55.9%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -39.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Killas W face Sporting Cristal W in Peru - Liga Women on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Killas W a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Sporting Cristal W 56%, so Sporting Cristal W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Killas W and 2.3 for Sporting Cristal W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Killas W are averaging 0.29 points per game versus 1.60 for Sporting Cristal W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +168.8%. This match finished 0-4.

Killas W vs Sporting Cristal W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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