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Zabbar St. Patrick vs Hamrun Spartans Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:30

Zabbar St. Patrick

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

UPCOMING

Hamrun Spartans

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 53.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.6%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.3%1-112.9%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.7%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.7%3-13.9%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 23.8% 4.20 +87.3%

Draw 26.4% 27.8% 3.60 -3.0%

Away win 29.0% 59.9% 1.67 -30.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

BTTS 52.9% 53.8% 1.86 -1.6%

Home O1.5 39.5% 29.4% 3.40 +34.3%

Away O1.5 32.5% 54.1% 1.85 -39.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zabbar St. Patrick1.3

Hamrun Spartans1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZABBAR ST. PATRICK · PPG 1.51

HAMRUN SPARTANS · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zabbar St. Patrick (H) 44.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +87.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.0%

Hamrun Spartans (A) 29.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zabbar St. Patrick face Hamrun Spartans in Malta - Premier League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zabbar St. Patrick a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Hamrun Spartans 29%, so Zabbar St. Patrick are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Zabbar St. Patrick and 1.0 for Hamrun Spartans (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zabbar St. Patrick are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.33 for Hamrun Spartans. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +34.3%.

Zabbar St. Patrick vs Hamrun Spartans Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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