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Velká Bíteš vs Pelhřimov Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D

Group D · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Velká Bíteš

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWD ·

UPCOMING

Pelhřimov

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.1%0-23.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.0%1-19.9%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.1%3-16.3%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.8%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 54.6% 1.83 -5.4%

Draw 23.4% 25.0% 4.00 -3.8%

Away win 25.0% 32.3% 3.10 -13.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 66.7% 1.50 -8.2%

Over 3.5 38.8% 45.9% 2.18 -15.4%

BTTS 61.5% 67.1% 1.49 -8.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 61.7% 1.62 -9.6%

Away O1.5 36.8% 43.3% 2.31 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velká Bíteš2.0

Pelhřimov1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VELKÁ BÍTEŠ · PPG 1.64

PELHŘIMOV · PPG 1.16

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Velká Bíteš (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -5.4%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.8%

Pelhřimov (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Velká Bíteš face Pelhřimov in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velká Bíteš a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Pelhřimov 25%, so Velká Bíteš are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Velká Bíteš and 1.2 for Pelhřimov (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velká Bíteš are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.16 for Pelhřimov.

Velká Bíteš vs Pelhřimov Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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