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União Santarém vs Caldas Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:00

União Santarém

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LDL ··

UPCOMING

Caldas

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-111.4%0-26.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.7%1-113.3%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.5%2-17.8%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.0%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 46.5% 2.15 -21.1%

Draw 27.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Away win 35.6% 32.3% 3.10 +10.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 45.5% 2.20 +10.2%

Over 3.5 28.2% 25.9% 3.86 +5.3%

BTTS 52.2% 51.3% 1.95 +1.8%

Home O1.5 32.3% 42.0% 2.38 -23.1%

Away O1.5 32.5% 32.3% 3.10 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

União Santarém1.2

Caldas1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIÃO SANTARÉM · PPG 1.21

CALDAS · PPG 1.06

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

União Santarém (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -21.1%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Caldas (A) 35.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

União Santarém face Caldas in Portugal - Liga 3 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives União Santarém a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Caldas 36%, so União Santarém are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for União Santarém and 1.0 for Caldas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, União Santarém are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.06 for Caldas. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.2%.

União Santarém vs Caldas Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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