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Fafe vs Guimaraes B Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 19:30

Fafe

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

DWD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Guimaraes B

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-18.5%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.4%1-112.4%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.1%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.4%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 52.4% 1.91 -8.1%

Draw 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

Away win 24.7% 26.3% 3.80 -3.7%

Over 2.5 49.6% 46.5% 2.15 +6.6%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.2% 3.82 +4.4%

BTTS 49.1% 51.3% 1.95 -4.3%

Home O1.5 40.0% 46.1% 2.17 -13.2%

Away O1.5 24.8% 29.2% 3.42 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.1%

H 48% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 0–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fafe1.5

Guimaraes B0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FAFE · PPG 1.65

GUIMARAES B · PPG 1.28

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fafe (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -8.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.0%

Guimaraes B (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fafe face Guimaraes B in Portugal - Liga 3 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fafe a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Guimaraes B 25%, so Fafe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fafe and 0.9 for Guimaraes B (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fafe are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.28 for Guimaraes B. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Fafe vs Guimaraes B Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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