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Trofense vs São João Ver Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Trofense

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

São João Ver

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLL ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-112.2%0-25.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.7%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-17.4%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 34.7% 2.88 +10.6%

Draw 32.7% 36.4% 2.75 -10.1%

Away win 28.9% 40.0% 2.50 -16.7%

Over 2.5 40.1% 45.5% 2.20 -11.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% 21.1% 4.75 -1.3%

BTTS 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 31.7% 3.15 -3.6%

Away O1.5 23.6% 35.2% 2.84 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

D 33% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 1–0✓ 14.7%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trofense1.1

São João Ver0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TROFENSE · PPG 0.91

SÃO JOÃO VER · PPG 1.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trofense (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +10.6%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -10.1%

São João Ver (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trofense face São João Ver in Portugal - Liga 3 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trofense a 38% chance, the draw 33% and São João Ver 29%, so Trofense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Trofense and 0.9 for São João Ver (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trofense are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.11 for São João Ver. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Trofense vs São João Ver Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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