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Khenchela vs USM Alger Prediction— Algeria - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Khenchela

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

USM Alger

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.5%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.6%1-112.4%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.1%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 44.4% 2.25 +11.4%

Draw 26.3% 33.9% 2.95 -13.5%

Away win 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 43.5% 2.30 +15.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.1% 4.33 +14.6%

BTTS 52.6% 52.4% 1.91 +0.5%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.8% 2.45 -2.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 31.3% 3.20 -9.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Khenchela1.5

USM Alger0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KHENCHELA · PPG 1.78

USM ALGER · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Khenchela (H) 49.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +11.4%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -13.5%

USM Alger (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Khenchela face USM Alger in Algeria - Ligue 1 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Khenchela a 50% chance, the draw 26% and USM Alger 24%, so Khenchela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Khenchela and 0.9 for USM Alger (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Khenchela are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.22 for USM Alger. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.9%.

Khenchela vs USM Alger Prediction— Algeria - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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