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MC Alger vs MC Oran Prediction— Algeria - Ligue 1

Thursday, August 27, 2026, 20:00

MC Alger

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

MC Oran

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-16.9%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.7%1-110.9%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-18.5%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-14.5%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 67.6% 1.48 -17.7%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

Away win 20.2% 13.8% 7.25 +27.9%

Over 2.5 44.8% 42.6% 2.35 +5.3%

Over 3.5 25.6% 23.1% 4.33 +6.5%

BTTS 47.2% 42.0% 2.38 +12.3%

Home O1.5 46.6% 54.6% 1.83 -14.7%

Away O1.5 16.7% 16.7% 6.00 +0.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 56% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.7%

#2 2–0 13.9%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 0–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MC Alger1.6

MC Oran0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MC ALGER · PPG 2.30

MC ORAN · PPG 1.26

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

MC Alger (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -17.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.2%

MC Oran (A) 20.2%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

MC Alger face MC Oran in Algeria - Ligue 1 on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MC Alger a 56% chance, the draw 24% and MC Oran 20%, so MC Alger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for MC Alger and 0.6 for MC Oran (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MC Alger are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.26 for MC Oran. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.3%.

MC Alger vs MC Oran Prediction— Algeria - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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