Today / Algeria - Ligue 1 / ES Setif vs Ben Aknoun
ES Setif vs Ben Aknoun Prediction— Algeria - Ligue 1
Thursday, August 27, 2026, 18:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%
Form & verdict
ES SETIF · PPG 1.82
BEN AKNOUN · PPG 1.30
xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
ES Setif face Ben Aknoun in Algeria - Ligue 1 on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ES Setif a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Ben Aknoun 23%, so ES Setif are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for ES Setif and 0.9 for Ben Aknoun (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ES Setif are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.30 for Ben Aknoun. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.1%.