Today / Algeria - Ligue 1 / ES Setif vs Ben Aknoun
ES Setif vs Ben Aknoun Prediction— Algeria - Ligue 1
Matchday 1 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:00
// Model verdict
BTTS
Model probability 49.9% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%
Form & verdict
ES SETIF · PPG 1.82
BEN AKNOUN · PPG 1.30
xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
ES Setif face Ben Aknoun in Algeria - Ligue 1 on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ES Setif a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Ben Aknoun 25%, so ES Setif are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for ES Setif and 0.9 for Ben Aknoun (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ES Setif are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.30 for Ben Aknoun. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.5%.