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České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Group A · Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

České Budějovice

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

UPCOMING

Dukla Praha II

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDW ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.4%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.7%1-18.1%1-24.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-17.6%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-17.9%4+-24.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 61.7% 1.62 +0.1%

Draw 18.1% 25.0% 4.00 -16.6%

Away win 20.1% 25.0% 4.00 -11.8%

Over 2.5 64.8% 65.4% 1.53 -0.9%

Over 3.5 44.6% 44.1% 2.27 +1.2%

BTTS 59.0% 65.4% 1.53 -9.7%

Home O1.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Away O1.5 32.5% 35.2% 2.84 -7.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.0%

H 62% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 9.1%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

České Budějovice2.4

Dukla Praha II1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ČESKÉ BUDĚJOVICE · PPG 1.93

DUKLA PRAHA II · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

České Budějovice (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +0.1%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -16.6%

Dukla Praha II (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

České Budějovice face Dukla Praha II in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives České Budějovice a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Dukla Praha II 20%, so České Budějovice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for České Budějovice and 1.1 for Dukla Praha II (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, České Budějovice are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.32 for Dukla Praha II. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +10.7%.

České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Match Preview & Prediction

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