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Králův Dvůr vs Písek Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Group A · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Králův Dvůr

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWW ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Písek

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.8%0-24.2%0-32.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.2%1-18.9%1-27.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.9%3-15.1%3-24.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.6%4+-23.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 43.5% 2.30 -1.3%

Draw 22.2% 30.8% 3.25 -16.7%

Away win 34.9% 38.5% 2.60 -9.3%

Over 2.5 64.4% 63.7% 1.57 +1.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 40.2% 2.49 +8.3%

BTTS 63.2% 64.5% 1.55 -2.0%

Home O1.5 54.9% 50.3% 1.99 +9.3%

Away O1.5 48.5% 46.9% 2.13 +3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.2%

H 43% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1✓ 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Králův Dvůr1.9

Písek1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KRÁLŮV DVŮR · PPG 1.69

PÍSEK · PPG 1.72

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Králův Dvůr (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -1.3%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.7%

Písek (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Králův Dvůr face Písek in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Králův Dvůr a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Písek 35%, so Králův Dvůr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Králův Dvůr and 1.7 for Písek (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Králův Dvůr are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.72 for Písek. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Králův Dvůr vs Písek Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Match Preview & Prediction

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