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Benešov vs Sparta Praha II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Group A · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 15:00

Benešov

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DLW ··

UPCOMING

Sparta Praha II

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.7%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.5%1-111.8%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.1%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.7%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 23.8% 4.20 +87.7%

Draw 24.5% 23.8% 4.20 +1.7%

Away win 30.8% 63.7% 1.57 -51.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 65.4% 1.53 -17.7%

Over 3.5 31.7% 42.4% 2.36 -25.2%

BTTS 55.9% 65.4% 1.53 -14.5%

Home O1.5 42.2% 37.9% 2.64 +11.4%

Away O1.5 36.8% 61.7% 1.62 -40.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 1–2 7.4%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benešov1.5

Sparta Praha II1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BENEŠOV · PPG 1.64

SPARTA PRAHA II · PPG 1.42

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Benešov (H) 44.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +87.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.7%

Sparta Praha II (A) 30.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -51.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benešov face Sparta Praha II in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benešov a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Sparta Praha II 31%, so Benešov are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Benešov and 1.2 for Sparta Praha II (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benešov are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.42 for Sparta Praha II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.6%.

Benešov vs Sparta Praha II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Match Preview & Prediction

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