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Salcedo vs Vega Real Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 20:00

Salcedo

PPG 2.02 · HOME

LAST 5

WDW ··

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vega Real

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation near the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.7%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.5%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.0%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.3%3-14.4%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 27.0% — — —

Over 2.5 47.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 32.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salcedo1.4

Vega Real1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SALCEDO · PPG 2.02

VEGA REAL · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.43, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Salcedo (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vega Real (A) 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Salcedo face Vega Real in Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salcedo a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Vega Real 27%, so Salcedo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Salcedo and 1.0 for Vega Real (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salcedo are averaging 2.02 points per game versus 1.15 for Vega Real. This match finished 3-1.

Salcedo vs Vega Real Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Match Preview & Prediction

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