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Basaksehir vs Kasimpasa Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Basaksehir

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kasimpasa

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 70.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3% — a clear edge.

+14.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-14.4%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.8%1-19.0%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-16.2%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-15.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.1% 61.3% 1.63 +14.3%

Draw 19.2% 25.6% 3.90 -25.1%

Away win 10.7% 20.0% 5.00 -46.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 60.6% 1.65 -16.8%

Over 3.5 28.4% 38.5% 2.60 -26.2%

BTTS 41.5% 61.7% 1.62 -32.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.5%

H 70% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 3–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Basaksehir2.0

Kasimpasa0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BASAKSEHIR · PPG 1.60

KASIMPASA · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Basaksehir (H) 70.1%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV +14.3%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -25.1%

Kasimpasa (A) 10.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -46.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Basaksehir face Kasimpasa in Turkey - Süper Lig on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Basaksehir a 70% chance, the draw 19% and Kasimpasa 11%, so Basaksehir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Basaksehir and 0.6 for Kasimpasa (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Basaksehir are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.93 for Kasimpasa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.3%. This match finished 4-0.

Basaksehir vs Kasimpasa Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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