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Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Imabari

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Montedio Yamagata

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.2%0-27.6%0-33.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.2%1-112.2%1-29.0%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.9%2-17.3%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 45.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 31.5% — — —

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 32.2% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Imabari1.2

Montedio Yamagata1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

IMABARI · PPG 1.04

MONTEDIO YAMAGATA · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Imabari (H) 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Montedio Yamagata (A) 45.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Imabari face Montedio Yamagata in Japan - J2 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Imabari a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Montedio Yamagata 45%, so Montedio Yamagata are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Imabari and 1.5 for Montedio Yamagata (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Imabari are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.15 for Montedio Yamagata. This match finished 0-3.

Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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