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Kataller Toyama vs Imabari Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 09:30

Kataller Toyama

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWL ·

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Imabari

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.6%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.2%1-111.9%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.3%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-14.9%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 54.6% 1.83 -13.4%

Draw 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

Away win 28.2% 25.6% 3.90 +6.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 53.5% 1.87 +0.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.5% 3.08 -2.7%

BTTS 54.7% 57.8% 1.73 -5.4%

Home O1.5 46.0% 52.9% 1.89 -13.1%

Away O1.5 35.6% 30.7% 3.26 +16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kataller Toyama1.6

Imabari1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KATALLER TOYAMA · PPG 1.17

IMABARI · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kataller Toyama (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -13.4%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

Imabari (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kataller Toyama face Imabari in Japan - J2 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kataller Toyama a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Imabari 28%, so Kataller Toyama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kataller Toyama and 1.2 for Imabari (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kataller Toyama are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.35 for Imabari. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +27.4%. This match finished 4-0.

Kataller Toyama vs Imabari Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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