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Consadole Sapporo vs Omiya Ardija Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 06:00

Consadole Sapporo

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLL ·

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Omiya Ardija

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.1%0-26.4%0-33.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.2%1-111.3%1-28.9%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.0%2-17.9%2-26.2%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.3%3-13.7%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 36.4% 2.75 -3.2%

Draw 24.5% 33.3% 3.00 -15.9%

Away win 40.3% 43.5% 2.30 -7.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.5% 1.74 -6.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 39.0% 42.9% 2.33 -9.1%

Away O1.5 48.5% 47.4% 2.11 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.7%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–1 8.1%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Consadole Sapporo1.4

Omiya Ardija1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CONSADOLE SAPPORO · PPG 1.77

OMIYA ARDIJA · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Consadole Sapporo (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -3.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.9%

Omiya Ardija (A) 40.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Consadole Sapporo face Omiya Ardija in Japan - J2 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Consadole Sapporo a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Omiya Ardija 40%, so Omiya Ardija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Consadole Sapporo and 1.6 for Omiya Ardija (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Consadole Sapporo are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.78 for Omiya Ardija. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 1-4.

Consadole Sapporo vs Omiya Ardija Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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