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Oita Trinita vs Iwaki Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Oita Trinita

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWL ·

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Iwaki

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-114.0%0-27.3%0-32.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.9%1-113.5%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.2%2-16.5%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 25.0% 4.00 +36.8%

Draw 32.0% 33.3% 3.00 -4.0%

Away win 33.8% 54.1% 1.85 -37.5%

Over 2.5 38.0% 42.7% 2.34 -11.1%

Over 3.5 20.6% 22.7% 4.40 -5.6%

BTTS 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 23.5% 4.25 +30.0%

Away O1.5 32.8% 44.4% 2.25 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.6%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oita Trinita1.0

Iwaki1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OITA TRINITA · PPG 1.09

IWAKI · PPG 1.23

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oita Trinita (H) 34.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +36.8%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.0%

Iwaki (A) 33.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oita Trinita face Iwaki in Japan - J2 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oita Trinita a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Iwaki 34%, so Oita Trinita are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Oita Trinita and 1.0 for Iwaki (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oita Trinita are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.23 for Iwaki. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Oita Trinita vs Iwaki Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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