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Blaublitz Akita vs Ventforet Kofu Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 09:00

Blaublitz Akita

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWL ·

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ventforet Kofu

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.7%0-27.0%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.0%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.2%2-17.5%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.8%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 45.5% 2.20 -21.9%

Draw 28.2% 36.4% 2.75 -13.5%

Away win 36.3% 30.3% 3.30 +19.8%

Over 2.5 44.8% 41.0% 2.44 +9.3%

Over 3.5 27.0% 22.5% 4.45 +12.1%

BTTS 50.7% 50.0% 2.00 +1.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 39.2% 2.55 -22.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 28.1% 3.56 +30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.7%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blaublitz Akita1.1

Ventforet Kofu1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BLAUBLITZ AKITA · PPG 1.04

VENTFORET KOFU · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.07, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Blaublitz Akita (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.9%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.5%

Ventforet Kofu (A) 36.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blaublitz Akita face Ventforet Kofu in Japan - J2 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blaublitz Akita a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Ventforet Kofu 36%, so Ventforet Kofu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Blaublitz Akita and 1.2 for Ventforet Kofu (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blaublitz Akita are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.12 for Ventforet Kofu. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Blaublitz Akita vs Ventforet Kofu Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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