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Fountain Gate vs Mbeya City Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 13:00

Fountain Gate

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Mbeya City

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-113.0%0-25.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.8%1-113.5%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.6%2-16.9%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.6%3-12.4%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% — — —

Draw 30.6% — — —

Away win 34.5% — — —

Over 2.5 38.7% — — —

Over 3.5 20.6% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 30.9% — — —

Away O1.5 25.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 14.8%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fountain Gate1.0

Mbeya City0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FOUNTAIN GATE · PPG 1.63

MBEYA CITY · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fountain Gate (H) 34.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mbeya City (A) 34.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fountain Gate face Mbeya City in Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fountain Gate a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Mbeya City 35%, so Fountain Gate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Fountain Gate and 0.9 for Mbeya City (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fountain Gate are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.25 for Mbeya City. This match finished 0-2.

Fountain Gate vs Mbeya City Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Match Preview & Prediction

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