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Mbeya City vs Dodoma Jiji Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 11:00

Mbeya City

PPG 0.98 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Dodoma Jiji

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-112.4%0-24.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.0%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.0%2-16.9%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.5%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 45.5% 2.20 -14.6%

Draw 34.0% 34.5% 2.90 -1.4%

Away win 27.2% 32.3% 3.10 -9.4%

Over 2.5 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 3.5 18.2% 21.5% 4.65 -9.2%

BTTS 43.6% 47.6% 2.10 -8.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 37.9% 2.64 -19.2%

Away O1.5 18.6% 28.6% 3.50 -20.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.6%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.0%

#2 1–0 17.0%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–0✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mbeya City1.1

Dodoma Jiji0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MBEYA CITY · PPG 0.98

DODOMA JIJI · PPG 0.97

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mbeya City (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -14.6%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -1.4%

Dodoma Jiji (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mbeya City face Dodoma Jiji in Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mbeya City a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Dodoma Jiji 27%, so Mbeya City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mbeya City and 0.8 for Dodoma Jiji (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mbeya City are averaging 0.98 points per game versus 0.97 for Dodoma Jiji. This match finished 2-0.

Mbeya City vs Dodoma Jiji Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Match Preview & Prediction

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