Today / Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara / Fountain Gate vs Mashujaa

Fountain Gate vs Mashujaa Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 13:00

Fountain Gate

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Mashujaa

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-114.3%0-26.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.1%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.1%2-16.3%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.2%3-12.0%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 40.8% 2.45 -22.3%

Draw 33.6% 34.7% 2.88 -3.2%

Away win 34.7% 36.4% 2.75 -4.6%

Over 2.5 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 3.5 18.2% 21.7% 4.60 -9.8%

BTTS 43.6% 49.8% 2.01 -12.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 35.7% 2.80 -14.3%

Away O1.5 22.8% 31.7% 3.15 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.6%

D 34% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 1–0✓ 15.1%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fountain Gate0.9

Mashujaa0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FOUNTAIN GATE · PPG 1.35

MASHUJAA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fountain Gate (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -22.3%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -3.2%

Mashujaa (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fountain Gate face Mashujaa in Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fountain Gate a 32% chance, the draw 34% and Mashujaa 35%, so Mashujaa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Fountain Gate and 0.9 for Mashujaa (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fountain Gate are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.33 for Mashujaa. This match finished 1-0.

Fountain Gate vs Mashujaa Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Match Preview & Prediction

More Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara Predictions