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Pamba Jiji vs Simba Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 13:15

Pamba Jiji

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLL ·

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Simba

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-116.4%0-210.0%0-34.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.9%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-04.1%2-15.1%2-23.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.1%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 20.0% 5.00 +12.9%

Draw 32.7% 29.4% 3.40 +11.2%

Away win 43.0% 61.7% 1.62 -30.3%

Over 2.5 38.0% 46.5% 2.15 -18.3%

Over 3.5 19.0% 26.7% 3.75 -17.3%

BTTS 43.6% 46.5% 2.15 -6.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 21.1% 4.75 +45.4%

Away O1.5 37.3% 52.6% 1.90 -29.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob43.6%

A 43% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–1 16.4%

#4 0–2 10.0%

#5 1–0 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pamba Jiji0.8

Simba1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PAMBA JIJI · PPG 1.43

SIMBA · PPG 2.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.44, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pamba Jiji (H) 24.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.9%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +11.2%

Simba (A) 43.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pamba Jiji face Simba in Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pamba Jiji a 24% chance, the draw 33% and Simba 43%, so Simba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Pamba Jiji and 1.2 for Simba (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pamba Jiji are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.20 for Simba. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +45.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Pamba Jiji vs Simba Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Match Preview & Prediction

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