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Singida Black Stars vs Namungo Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 16:00

Singida Black Stars logo
Singida Black Stars
PPG 1.89 · HOME
LAST 5
WDLWW
3 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5
Namungo logo
Namungo
PPG 0.83 · AWAY
LAST 5
LWWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.5%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-110.4%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.1%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-14.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 54.3% 67.6% 1.48 -19.6%
Draw 23.8% 27.0% 3.70 -7.2%
Away win 21.9% 17.4% 5.75 +15.6%
Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%
Over 3.5 31.7%
BTTS 52.9%
Home O1.5 55.8%
Away O1.5 23.5%

League track record

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%
O2.5 56%
BTTS 61%
Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 3-2
xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%
#2 2–0 12.0%
#3 1–0 12.8%
#4 2–1 9.7%
#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Singida Black Stars1.9
Namungo0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SINGIDA BLACK STARS · PPG 1.89

NAMUNGO · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Singida Black Stars (H) 54.3%
ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -19.6%
Draw 23.8%
ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.2%
Namungo (A) 21.9%
ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Singida Black Stars face Namungo in Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Singida Black Stars a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Namungo 22%, so Singida Black Stars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Singida Black Stars and 0.8 for Namungo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Singida Black Stars are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.83 for Namungo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 3-2.

PredictVantage

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