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Simba vs Coastal Union Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Matchday 4 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 16:00

Simba

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Coastal Union

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDL ·

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.92 for Home, form 2.17 vs 0.91 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-12.7%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.5%1-16.5%1-21.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-17.8%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.9%3-16.2%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-013.7%4+-16.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.3% — — —

Draw 17.1% — — —

Away win 8.7% — — —

Over 2.5 54.6% — — —

Over 3.5 34.9% — — —

BTTS 46.7% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 15.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.2%

#2 3–0 12.9%

#3 1–0✓ 13.5%

#4 1–1 6.5%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Simba2.4

Coastal Union0.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SIMBA · PPG 2.17

COASTAL UNION · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.92 for Home, form 2.17 vs 0.91 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Simba (H) 74.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Coastal Union (A) 8.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Simba face Coastal Union in Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Simba a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Coastal Union 9%, so Simba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Simba and 0.5 for Coastal Union (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Simba are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.91 for Coastal Union. This match finished 1-0.

Simba vs Coastal Union Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Match Preview & Prediction

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