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Namungo vs Fountain Gate Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 15:00

Namungo

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Fountain Gate

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-18.9%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-111.8%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-17.8%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% — — —

Draw 27.1% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 37.8% — — —

Over 3.5 19.3% — — —

BTTS 43.7% — — —

Home O1.5 37.4% — — —

Away O1.5 16.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.8%

#2 0–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 11.8%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Namungo1.3

Fountain Gate0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NAMUNGO · PPG 1.51

FOUNTAIN GATE · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Namungo (H) 51.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fountain Gate (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Namungo face Fountain Gate in Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Namungo a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Fountain Gate 22%, so Namungo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Namungo and 0.6 for Fountain Gate (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Namungo are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 0.94 for Fountain Gate. This match finished 1-0.

Namungo vs Fountain Gate Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Match Preview & Prediction

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