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Azam vs Pamba Jiji Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

Azam

PPG 2.28 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Pamba Jiji

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.38 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-14.6%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.7%1-18.8%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.1%3-15.3%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-13.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.0% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 16.2% — — —

Over 2.5 50.1% — — —

Over 3.5 28.1% — — —

BTTS 43.6% — — —

Home O1.5 54.9% — — —

Away O1.5 16.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.9%

#2 1–0 16.7%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 3–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Azam1.9

Pamba Jiji0.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AZAM · PPG 2.28

PAMBA JIJI · PPG 0.99

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.38 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Azam (H) 61.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pamba Jiji (A) 16.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Azam face Pamba Jiji in Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Azam a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Pamba Jiji 16%, so Azam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Azam and 0.5 for Pamba Jiji (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Azam are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 0.99 for Pamba Jiji. This match finished 2-1.

Azam vs Pamba Jiji Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Match Preview & Prediction

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