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Mbeya City vs Mashujaa Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00

Mbeya City

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Mashujaa

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.8%0-112.0%0-23.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.8%1-111.4%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.4%2-15.4%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.3%3-11.7%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% — — —

Draw 33.6% — — —

Away win 22.3% — — —

Over 2.5 33.3% — — —

Over 3.5 13.6% — — —

BTTS 43.0% — — —

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 16.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.8%

#2 1–0 21.8%

#3 0–1 12.0%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mbeya City1.0

Mashujaa0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MBEYA CITY · PPG 1.27

MASHUJAA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.43, combined xG 1.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mbeya City (H) 44.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mashujaa (A) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mbeya City face Mashujaa in Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mbeya City a 44% chance, the draw 34% and Mashujaa 22%, so Mbeya City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mbeya City and 0.5 for Mashujaa (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mbeya City are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.14 for Mashujaa. This match finished 2-1.

Mbeya City vs Mashujaa Prediction— Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Match Preview & Prediction

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