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SC Covilha vs Atlético CP Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

SC Covilha

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

WDL ··

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Atlético CP

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDW ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.1%0-115.3%0-26.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.6%1-113.2%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.7%2-15.7%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.9%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% — — —

Draw 34.6% — — —

Away win 29.6% — — —

Over 2.5 34.5% — — —

Over 3.5 18.2% — — —

BTTS 43.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 22.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.1%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 15.3%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Covilha0.9

Atlético CP0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SC COVILHA · PPG 1.52

ATLÉTICO CP · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.02, combined xG 1.71 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SC Covilha (H) 35.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atlético CP (A) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Covilha face Atlético CP in Portugal - Liga 3 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Covilha a 36% chance, the draw 35% and Atlético CP 30%, so SC Covilha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for SC Covilha and 0.8 for Atlético CP (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Covilha are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.86 for Atlético CP. This match finished 0-3.

SC Covilha vs Atlético CP Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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