Today / Slovakia - 2. liga / Malzenice vs Slavia TU K.

Malzenice vs Slavia TU K. Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Regular Season - 26 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 13:00

Malzenice

PPG 2.17 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Slavia TU K.

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+14.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.9%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.3%1-17.3%1-24.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.0%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.8%3-17.8%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-19.1%4+-25.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.4% 51.3% 1.95 +31.4%

Draw 17.2% 29.4% 3.40 -41.5%

Away win 15.4% 31.3% 3.20 -50.7%

Over 2.5 71.3% 62.5% 1.60 +14.1%

Over 3.5 50.4% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.0%

H 67% / xG 2.5-1.2 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.0%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 1–1 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malzenice2.5

Slavia TU K.1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.3% · O3.5 PROB 50.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MALZENICE · PPG 2.17

SLAVIA TU K. · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.17), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Malzenice (H) 67.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +31.4%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -41.5%

Slavia TU K. (A) 15.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -50.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malzenice face Slavia TU K. in Slovakia - 2. liga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malzenice a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Slavia TU K. 15%, so Malzenice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Malzenice and 1.2 for Slavia TU K. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malzenice are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Slavia TU K.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Malzenice vs Slavia TU K. Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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