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Jubilo Iwata vs Tokushima Vortis Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Jubilo Iwata

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Tokushima Vortis

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-112.0%0-25.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.6%1-113.4%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.6%2-17.5%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.8%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% — — —

Draw 32.7% — — —

Away win 28.9% — — —

Over 2.5 42.7% — — —

Over 3.5 20.6% — — —

BTTS 47.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 29.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jubilo Iwata1.1

Tokushima Vortis1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JUBILO IWATA · PPG 1.60

TOKUSHIMA VORTIS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.13, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jubilo Iwata (H) 38.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tokushima Vortis (A) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jubilo Iwata face Tokushima Vortis in Japan - J2 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jubilo Iwata a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Tokushima Vortis 29%, so Jubilo Iwata are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Jubilo Iwata and 1.0 for Tokushima Vortis (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jubilo Iwata are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.33 for Tokushima Vortis. This match finished 2-1.

Jubilo Iwata vs Tokushima Vortis Prediction— Japan - J2 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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