Today / Slovakia - 2. liga / Šamorín vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Šamorín vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Šamorín

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.3%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.8%1-18.0%1-24.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-17.7%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-18.2%4+-24.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 61.7% 1.62 -6.4%

Draw 21.2% 25.3% 3.95 -9.8%

Away win 21.0% 22.7% 4.40 -4.6%

Over 2.5 61.2% 61.7% 1.62 -0.9%

Over 3.5 38.8% 40.0% 2.50 -3.0%

BTTS 54.5% 62.5% 1.60 -12.8%

Home O1.5 63.0% 63.7% 1.57 -1.1%

Away O1.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 9.4%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Šamorín2.4

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ŠAMORÍN · PPG 1.82

BANÍK LEHOTA P.VTÁČNIKOM · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Šamorín (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -6.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -9.8%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (A) 21.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Šamorín face Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom in Slovakia - 2. liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Šamorín a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 21%, so Šamorín are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Šamorín and 1.0 for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Šamorín are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.00 for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.3%.

Šamorín vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovakia - 2. liga Predictions