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Zlaté Moravce vs Žilina II Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Zlaté Moravce

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

Žilina II

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.9%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-19.9%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.7%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 54.1% 1.85 -1.6%

Draw 24.4% 27.4% 3.65 -6.6%

Away win 22.5% 29.0% 3.45 -13.4%

Over 2.5 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 38.5% 2.60 -14.7%

BTTS 53.3% 64.5% 1.55 -17.4%

Home O1.5 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Away O1.5 32.5% 39.2% 2.55 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.3%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zlaté Moravce2.0

Žilina II1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ZLATÉ MORAVCE · PPG 1.54

ŽILINA II · PPG 1.37

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zlaté Moravce (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.6%

Žilina II (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zlaté Moravce face Žilina II in Slovakia - 2. liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zlaté Moravce a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Žilina II 23%, so Zlaté Moravce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Zlaté Moravce and 1.0 for Žilina II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zlaté Moravce are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.37 for Žilina II.

Zlaté Moravce vs Žilina II Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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