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Roskilde vs Naestved Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Regular Season - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:00

Roskilde

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Naestved

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.7%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.3%1-111.3%1-26.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.4%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 38.5% 2.60 +26.4%

Draw 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -16.1%

Away win 26.9% 40.8% 2.45 -20.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 55.6% 1.80 +10.2%

Over 3.5 37.3% 33.3% 3.00 +11.9%

BTTS 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 42.0% 2.38 +17.6%

Away O1.5 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Roskilde1.7

Naestved1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSKILDE · PPG 1.58

NAESTVED · PPG 1.79

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Roskilde (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +26.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.1%

Naestved (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Roskilde face Naestved in Denmark - 2. Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Roskilde a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Naestved 27%, so Roskilde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Roskilde and 1.2 for Naestved (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Roskilde are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.79 for Naestved. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.2%.

Roskilde vs Naestved Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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