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Kisvárda II vs Diósgyőr II Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northeast

Northeast · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 09:00

Kisvárda II

PPG 1.81 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Diósgyőr II

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.7%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.6%1-17.1%1-23.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-19.2%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-18.0%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-19.7%4+-24.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 76.9% 1.30 -18.1%

Draw 21.0% 20.0% 5.00 +3.0%

Away win 15.9% 14.3% 7.00 +6.8%

Over 2.5 60.9% 66.7% 1.50 -8.6%

Over 3.5 39.5% 45.2% 2.21 -12.7%

BTTS 53.1% 58.5% 1.71 -9.2%

Home O1.5 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Away O1.5 27.7% 24.4% 4.10 +8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 17%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 63% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 3–0 8.5%

#4 1–1 7.1%

#5 3–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kisvárda II2.6

Diósgyőr II0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KISVÁRDA II · PPG 1.81

DIÓSGYŐR II · PPG 1.01

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.67 for Home, form 1.81 vs 1.01 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kisvárda II (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -18.1%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.0%

Diósgyőr II (A) 15.9%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kisvárda II face Diósgyőr II in Hungary - NB III - Northeast on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kisvárda II a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Diósgyőr II 16%, so Kisvárda II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Kisvárda II and 0.9 for Diósgyőr II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kisvárda II are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.01 for Diósgyőr II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +8.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Kisvárda II vs Diósgyőr II Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northeast

Match Preview & Prediction

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