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Diriangén vs Rancho Santana Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:00

Diriangén

PPG 1.58 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Rancho Santana

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 91.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-13.1%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.3%1-17.3%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-18.6%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.5%3-16.8%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-17.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 91.7% 1.09 -29.8%

Draw 21.3% 13.5% 7.40 +34.6%

Away win 14.3% 4.3% 23.00 +137.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 73.5% 1.36 -27.2%

Over 3.5 32.3% 52.4% 1.91 -38.3%

BTTS 48.4% 40.8% 2.45 +18.6%

Home O1.5 62.4% 87.7% 1.14 -28.9%

Away O1.5 17.4% 19.8% 5.05 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 3–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1✓ 8.6%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Diriangén2.4

Rancho Santana0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DIRIANGÉN · PPG 1.58

RANCHO SANTANA · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.77 for Home, form 1.58 vs 0.75 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Diriangén (H) 64.4%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -29.8%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +34.6%

Rancho Santana (A) 14.3%

ODDS 23.00 · IMPLIED 4.3% EV +137.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Diriangén face Rancho Santana in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Diriangén a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Rancho Santana 14%, so Diriangén are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Diriangén and 0.6 for Rancho Santana (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Diriangén are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.75 for Rancho Santana. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +82.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Diriangén vs Rancho Santana Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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