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Democrata SL vs Mamoré Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Semi-finals ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Democrata SL

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mamoré

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-16.0%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.1%1-110.2%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-18.7%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.2%3-14.9%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-13.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.1% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 17.4% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.0% — — —

BTTS 45.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.6%

H 58% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 2–0 14.5%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Democrata SL1.7

Mamoré0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEMOCRATA SL · PPG 2.50

MAMORÉ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Democrata SL (H) 58.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mamoré (A) 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Democrata SL face Mamoré in Brazil - Mineiro - 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Democrata SL a 58% chance, the draw 25% and Mamoré 17%, so Democrata SL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Democrata SL and 0.6 for Mamoré (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Democrata SL are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Mamoré. This match finished 3-1.

Democrata SL vs Mamoré Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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