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Aymorés vs Villa Nova Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Semi-finals ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Aymorés

PPG 2.17 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Villa Nova

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-16.9%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.6%1-111.4%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.5%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.3%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 21.5% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 48.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 2–0 11.3%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aymorés1.7

Villa Nova0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AYMORÉS · PPG 2.17

VILLA NOVA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aymorés (H) 53.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Villa Nova (A) 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aymorés face Villa Nova in Brazil - Mineiro - 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aymorés a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Villa Nova 22%, so Aymorés are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Aymorés and 0.8 for Villa Nova (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aymorés are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.00 for Villa Nova. This match finished 3-3.

Aymorés vs Villa Nova Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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