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Real Estelí vs Walter Ferretti Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 01:00

Real Estelí

PPG 1.91 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Walter Ferretti

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-14.8%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.4%1-19.6%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.7%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.4%3-16.5%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 57.1% 1.75 -0.4%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Away win 18.6% 24.4% 4.10 -14.2%

Over 2.5 50.3% 55.6% 1.80 -9.5%

Over 3.5 30.3% 33.3% 3.00 -9.1%

BTTS 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

Home O1.5 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Away O1.5 17.6% 32.3% 3.10 -27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Estelí2.0

Walter Ferretti0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ESTELÍ · PPG 1.91

WALTER FERRETTI · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Estelí (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -0.4%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Walter Ferretti (A) 18.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Estelí face Walter Ferretti in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Estelí a 57% chance, the draw 25% and Walter Ferretti 19%, so Real Estelí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Real Estelí and 0.8 for Walter Ferretti (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Estelí are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.73 for Walter Ferretti. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Real Estelí vs Walter Ferretti Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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