Today / Peru - Liga Women / Killas W vs Alianza Lima W

Killas W vs Alianza Lima W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura - 1 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 15:00

Killas W logo
Killas W
PPG 0.40 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Alianza Lima W logo
Alianza Lima W
PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-110.5%0-29.8%0-36.1%0-4+4.3%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.9%2-15.4%2-25.0%2-33.1%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 21.5%
Draw 23.2%
Away win 55.3%
Over 2.5 58.1%
Over 3.5 35.2%
BTTS 55.4%
Home O1.5 35.0%
Away O1.5 49.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.4%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%
#2 1–2 9.9%
#3 0–2 9.8%
#4 0–1 10.5%
#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Killas W1.0
Alianza Lima W1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KILLAS W · PPG 0.40

ALIANZA LIMA W · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value
45%
DANGER

xG gap -0.85 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Killas W (H) 21.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Alianza Lima W (A) 55.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Killas W face Alianza Lima W in Peru - Liga Women on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Killas W a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Alianza Lima W 55%, so Alianza Lima W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Killas W and 1.9 for Alianza Lima W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Killas W are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.33 for Alianza Lima W.

PredictVantage

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