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Mamoré vs Democrata SL Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Semi-finals ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 19:15

Mamoré

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Democrata SL

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.21, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-113.6%0-28.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.1%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.5%2-16.5%2-23.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.8%3-12.1%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% — — —

Draw 29.0% — — —

Away win 36.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 100%

Score Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 0–1 13.6%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mamoré1.0

Democrata SL1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MAMORÉ · PPG 1.67

DEMOCRATA SL · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.21, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mamoré (H) 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Democrata SL (A) 36.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mamoré face Democrata SL in Brazil - Mineiro - 2 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mamoré a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Democrata SL 36%, so Democrata SL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mamoré and 1.2 for Democrata SL (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mamoré are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Democrata SL.

Mamoré vs Democrata SL Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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